Climate change modeling in the context of urban decarbonization strategy | Journal of Engineering Sciences

Climate change modeling in the context of urban decarbonization strategy

Author(s): Kofanova O.

Affilation(s): National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, 37 Peremohy Av., 03056, Kyiv, Ukraine

*Corresponding Author’s Address: [email protected]

Issue: Volume 5; Issue 1 (2018)

Dates:
Paper received: January 16, 2018
The final version of the paper received: February 7, 2018
Paper accepted online: February 23, 2018

Citation:
Kovanova O. Climate change modeling in the context of urban decarbonization strategy / O. Kofanova // Journal of Engineering Sciences. – Sumy : Sumy State University, 2018. – Volume 5, Issue 1. – P. H1-H6.

DOI: 10.21272/jes.2018.5(1).h1

Research Area: CHEMICAL ENGINEERING: Environmental Protection

Abstract. The anthropogenic influence on the Earth’s climate is growing and the risks of the irreversible impacts on ecosystems also increase. This paper is focused on the long-term prediction of the climate change in Kyiv region and decarbonization strategy development. The bcc-csm1-1 and IPSL-CM5A AR 5 climate models were used. It was determined that the average annual temperature in Kyiv region under the RCP 8.5 high-emission future scenario will increase noticeably (up to 23.8 °C according to the IPSL-CM5A model) while at the RCP 2.6 low-emission future scenario it won’t change significantly (maximum value of 11.5 °C according to the IPSL-CM5A model). So, the research recommendations were organized in order to develop decarbonization strategy for Ukraine that will help to reduce emission levels and reach the RCP 2.6 scenario. The practical and scientific value of the work is specified by the fact that obtained results take into account updated information about climate changes and can be used to increase the awareness of citizens about it. The results of the study confirm the existence and danger of the problem of climate change and show how GHG emissions can affect the ecological balance of the urbanized ecosystem. The risks of the certain natural disasters occurrence were also considered. It was found that amplification of the natural hazards is one of the main dangers of the RCP 8.5 scenario for the world, Ukraine and Kyiv region.

Keywords: climate modeling, global warming, decarbonization, climate change, natural hazards.

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