Climate change modeling in the context of urban decarbonization strategy

Author(s): Kofanova O.

Affilation(s): National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, 37 Peremohy Av., 03056, Kyiv, Ukraine

*Corresponding Author’s Address: [email protected]

Issue: Volume 5; Issue 1 (2018)

Paper received: January 16, 2018
The final version of the paper received: February 7, 2018
Paper accepted online: February 23, 2018

Kovanova O. Climate change modeling in the context of urban decarbonization strategy / O. Kofanova // Journal of Engineering Sciences. – Sumy : Sumy State University, 2018. – Volume 5, Issue 1. – P. H1-H6.

DOI: 10.21272/jes.2018.5(1).h1

Research Area: CHEMICAL ENGINEERING: Environmental Protection

Abstract. The anthropogenic influence on the Earth’s climate is growing and the risks of the irreversible impacts on ecosystems also increase. This paper is focused on the long-term prediction of the climate change in Kyiv region and decarbonization strategy development. The bcc-csm1-1 and IPSL-CM5A AR 5 climate models were used. It was determined that the average annual temperature in Kyiv region under the RCP 8.5 high-emission future scenario will increase noticeably (up to 23.8 °C according to the IPSL-CM5A model) while at the RCP 2.6 low-emission future scenario it won’t change significantly (maximum value of 11.5 °C according to the IPSL-CM5A model). So, the research recommendations were organized in order to develop decarbonization strategy for Ukraine that will help to reduce emission levels and reach the RCP 2.6 scenario. The practical and scientific value of the work is specified by the fact that obtained results take into account updated information about climate changes and can be used to increase the awareness of citizens about it. The results of the study confirm the existence and danger of the problem of climate change and show how GHG emissions can affect the ecological balance of the urbanized ecosystem. The risks of the certain natural disasters occurrence were also considered. It was found that amplification of the natural hazards is one of the main dangers of the RCP 8.5 scenario for the world, Ukraine and Kyiv region.

Keywords: climate modeling, global warming, decarbonization, climate change, natural hazards.


  1. Fifth Assessment Report (AR 5). IPCC. Retrieved from
  2. Pachauri, R. K., & Meyer, L. A. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, IPCC. Retrieved from
  3. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from
  4. Xin, X., Zhang, L., Zhang, J., Wu, T., & Fang, Y. (2013). Climate Change Projections over East Asia with BCC_CSM1.1 Climate Model under RCP Scenarios. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 91(4), 413–429, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2013-401.
  5. Williams, R. G., Roussenov, V., Goodwin, P., Resplandy, L., & Bopp, L. (2017). Sensitivity of Global Warming to Carbon Emissions: Effects of Heat and Carbon Uptake in a Suite of Earth System Models. Journal of Climate, 30(23), 9343–9363, doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0468.1.
  6. Huang, W. L., Chen, W. Y., & Anandarajah, G. (2017). The role of technology diffusion in a decarbonizing world to limit global warming to well below 2 °C: An assessment with application of Global TIMES model. Applied Energy, 208, 291–301, doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.10.040.
  7. Holiuk, O.V., & Moiseienko, L.V. (2011). Veryfikatsiia danykh pryzemnoi temperatury povitria MZTsAO, CRU ta REMO za 1850–2000 roky. [Verification of the surface air temperature data of the СМІР, CRU and REMO for the period 1850-2000]. Heohrafiia ta turyzm – Geography and Tourism, 12, 213–220. Retrieved from [in Ukrainian].
  8. Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., et al. (2013). Evaluation of Climate Models. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York, pp. 741–866. Retrieved from
  9. AR 5 Climate Model Mapper. Climate and Carbon Cycle Models. Retrieved from
  10. Climate Time Series Browser. Climate and Carbon Cycle Models. Retrieved from
  11. Jones, S. (2017). Portugal forest fires under control after more than 60 deaths. The Guardian. Retrieved from
  12. High waves crash on coastline as Typhoon Hato hits Hong Kong (2017). The Guardian. Retrieved from
  13. North of Ireland sees flooding after battering by heavy rain (2017). The Guardian. Retrieved from
  14. Ratcliffe, R. (2017). Floods claim more than 800 lives across India, Nepal and Bangladesh. The Guardian. Retrieved from
  15. Owen, P., Helmore, E., & Dart, T. (2017). Texas hit by Hurricane Harvey: What we know so far. The Guardian. Retrieved from
  16. The State Emergency Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from
  17. Ukraine Disaster and Risk Profile (2014). PreventionWeb. Retrieved from https://www.prevenet/countries/ukr/data.
  18. The Ecological City of Tomorrow in the Western Harbour, Malmö. Smart City, Sweden. Retrieved from
  19. McFarland, M. (2016). MIT launches startup accelerator to tackle the world’s biggest challenges. CNNtech. Retrieved from

Full Text